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 Post subject: Awesome Cup Statistics
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:23 am 
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So, the project on analyzing the metagame kind of fell apart as I lost motivation and such, but I did do some looking at another interesting element of the Awesome Cup tourney: How teams did:

Image

Points are the number of points that the team got in the tourney, based on how they placed, explained here.
Qualifiers are the number of qualifiers the teams entered.
Games are the number of games the teams played in the qualifiers.
Win Rate is just that, winning percentage in all games. Finals matches were counted as 2 or 3 individual games.
Win Rate vs. Field is the win rate of each team against only the other teams that are also in the top 16.
Rating is from here, as of 6/24/15.
The next 12 columns are the number of wins each team got at each qualifier.
Loss records the teams total number of losses.
IW and IL are the teams wins and losses versus other teams in the top 16.


Since the winners of the final bracket actually get stuff, figuring out who will win is relevant. Some interesting things I noticed from the stats:

BOOM, Spade, and 99cents would seem to be the favorites based on their performance in the qualifiers, with Ion, BarbieQ, and 3HM being potential underdogs.
BOOM and 99cents never competed in a qualifier against each other. It will be interesting to see the 2 meet over the weekend.
Chocotan Fan Club managed to qualify by only winning 6 games.
Nautworthy won 92% (12-1) of their games against non-top 16 teams, but only won 11% (1-8) against top 16 teams.
NinjasWithAttitudes, Nautorious, Gas Powered Stick, and Last Moment competed in all 12 qualifiers. Chocotan Fan Club and 99cents competed only in 4.
NinjasWithAttitudes, 99cents, and Gelati each won at least 1 game in each of the qualifiers they entered. Nautorious, Gas Powered Stick, and Hot Voltar Train each won no games in 4 of the qualifiers they entered.

Link for google doc, if anyone wants to play with the numbers.

Anyway, I hope someone finds this interesting or useful. This should be a great weekend of 'nauts!

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 Post subject: Re: Awesome Cup Statistics
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:30 pm 
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Thanks for the effort!
It really is very interesting :ayla:

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 Post subject: Re: Awesome Cup Statistics
 Post Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:16 am 
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By definition, the underdogs would be HVT and Nautworthy. Although Ninjas are ranked much higher than they should be, Nautworthy has the better odds of advancing past the first round. Nautworthy actually has the easiest side of the bracket until the semi-finals. 3 of the top 4 teams in the game are in the upper portion of the bracket. I'm not sure how they are doing the losers bracket though. It might "even it out".

Bets' True Rankings:
1. BOOM
2. Spade
3. ion
4. 99c
5. Gelati
6. BOSS
7. NN
8. BBQ
9. 3HM
10. Ninja
11. LaMo
12. Nautworthy
13. Akio
14. Gas
15. Chocojapan
16. HVT


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 Post subject: Re: Awesome Cup Statistics
 Post Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:26 am 
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Bets wrote:
Bets' True Rankings:
1. BOOM
2. Spade
3. ion
4. 99c
5. Gelati
6. BOSS
7. NN
8. BBQ
9. 3HM
10. Ninja
11. LaMo
12. Nautworthy
13. Akio
14. Gas
15. Chocojapan
16. HVT


Agree with most of this, I've been very surprised at BOSS's performance this tournament. I don't really know Gelati well enough to say whether I would or wouldn't put them that high on the list.

Thanks for putting this information together OP.

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 Post subject: Re: Awesome Cup Statistics
 Post Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:33 am 
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Mowcno wrote:
Agree with most of this, I've been very surprised at BOSS's performance this tournament.


The guys have not been playing well, and most of the mistakes have been on the character selection screen. I kid you not there have been multiple times where Canole chose the wrong naut :shrug:

Bo1 has NOT been kind to us :lolstar:

It's of no consequence anyway because it only really matters about getting into the finals. Now's the time where the games ACTUALLY matter, hopefully the boys can shape up and correct their issues they've been having.

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 Post subject: Re: Awesome Cup Statistics
 Post Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:29 pm 
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most of the qualifiers have been 2/3 of the BOSS roster since I got a job that works on weekends and only have time to play in some of the EU quals.


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 Post subject: Re: Awesome Cup Statistics
 Post Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:09 pm 
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I used to think until pretty recently that gelati was a mid tier team (one of the underdogs, like how I think of HDTV) so I am heavily surprised at their performance^^

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 Post subject: Re: Awesome Cup Statistics
 Post Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:14 pm 
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I put Gelati above BOSS because of Awesomefest, not necessarily due to AwesomeCup. The whole point of showing the true rankings was to explain how AwesomeCup qualifiers basically meant nothing in terms of ranking teams properly.

I also could have put Akio and Chocojapan higher, however, I don't think they are necessarily great teams but more that other teams for some reason struggle against Japanese ping and strategies - probably because they are just not knowledgeable on the Japan tactics.


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 Post subject: Re: Awesome Cup Statistics
 Post Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:59 pm 
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Really cool stuff :D

I'm surprised how high people rate us, I still feel like we have a lot to prove.

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 Post subject: Re: Awesome Cup Statistics
 Post Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:43 pm 
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Bets wrote:
By definition, the underdogs would be HVT and Nautworthy. Although Ninjas are ranked much higher than they should be, Nautworthy has the better odds of advancing past the first round. Nautworthy actually has the easiest side of the bracket until the semi-finals. 3 of the top 4 teams in the game are in the upper portion of the bracket. I'm not sure how they are doing the losers bracket though. It might "even it out".


Re: Underdog, yeah, I guess you're right. :facepalm:

Also, I didn't have confirmation from the Awesome Cup site at the time of posting, so I didn't extrapolate the bracket. I see it now. I would agree, the top half looks tougher than the bottom. If the numbers I had here actually meant anything, it might be interesting to put probabilities at different teams winning, but that would probably be a largely pointless exercise. SSS, and such.

EDIT: So I kept thinking about it, and decided to work up the probability map. Stupid math.

Anyway, I used a sloppy regression to modify the winning percentages of each team (shown in the updated spreadsheet as MWP). Basically, I counted games against the other top 16 teams twice and regular games once. Then, I used an estimation tool to calculate a win rate for two teams that have given win rates (e.g. if Akio with a 60% rate plays Gas with a 51% rate, you expect them to win 59% of the time). I had to then adjust those values for the best of 3 format (In the same example, if Akio beats Gas in 59% of their games, you'd expect Akio to beat Gas in 63% of their best of 3's).

With that in mind, here are the results, based on the bracket. They are listed in order from best chance to win the upper bracket to worst.

BOOM: 67%
Spade: 15%
99cents: 14%
Ninjas: 1%
Ion: 1%
3HM: 1%
AKIO: 1%
Everyone else: <.5%

I think the formula I used might overestimate BOOM's chances, but if you feel they really are a true 90% win rate team against the field, then these results are probably valid. It also emphasizes the difficulty of the upper half of the bracket. While Ion is probably a better team than Ninjas, 3HM, or AKIO, they have a similar probability of success, given that they'd (likely) have to beat 99cents, BOOM, and Spade to win the upper bracket, while the others would (likely) just have to beat Spade and BOOM.

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