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 Post subject: Re: 2 much infuriating problems that haven't allowed F2P to
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 4:01 pm 
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Zold wrote:
Would you seriously argue that an argument such as: "My friends say A, therefore A must be true!" Stands any ground against a gigantic trend for nearly all indie Steam-developers?

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Take a look at the Steamcharts, it's a gradual slow decrease (bulb being F2P launch) - as it is with a lot of indie games. If a patch would break or make it, then you'd see huge spikes - which we don't. This is simply the effect of an old game getting older. And yes the game has lost tons of players - but these were all F2P players that were merely trying a game out to see if they liked it. This effect occured basically every free to play weekend or week in the past. The fact that the paywall is gone (while it really isn't) doesn't change that.

As for the XP-system. You can measure a year before the XP-system and a year after and you won't find any significant changes in terms of player decline. The game has been declining since 2014, long before the XP-system. This is the natural process for most games.

Need to panic? I don't know, it's just a game. Games die. Find another game and move on when the time comes.


Steamcharts only show population trends, not who is in the population.
And making claims such as "And yes the game has lost tons of players - but these were all F2P players that were merely trying a game out to see if they liked it." without backup isn't much better of an argument.
You showed the last 6 month statistic, but if you switch to last 3 months you see a fairly stagnating population up until rocket release after which it gradually dives downwards.

Sure, there's probably a lot of F2P players that stopped, but I've noticed there's still a lot of F2P players and far fewer veterans than before the Commander Rocket launch.

Games die, yes, but mobas are amongst the genres of game where they don't have to.

Though I can't understand how you can say there's no visible decline after the exp system. February 2015 the playerbase was at 1.6K, move over to November of the same year and it's still at 1.5K. EXP system came out in December of that year, followed by a loss of 200 people. After a bump (probably free weekend) you see the population slowly dive to 640 while the year before there was no loss in yearly statistic.

And even if it's due to the game being old, why would it not be a good idea to still do something about it?
Ronimo clearly want this game to succeed, but it isn't well reflected in their actions.

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 Post subject: Re: 2 much infuriating problems that haven't allowed F2P to
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 4:09 pm 
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I can attest to the fact that maybe one or two veteran players that I remember from the pre-galactron days are seen and every day I see less and less veteran players in general from people who came around shortly after. As someone who played from pre-galactron until now and took about 8 months off after the IX launch, everything the OP says is true, and more. This game has never been able to retain players and if the current trends are indicative of anything, it'll keep losing players, then the remaining 200 players by January will lag themselves into oblivion Speaking of....

Shanks wrote:
Paulo is an extreme lagger


It is known.

After sinking almost two thousand hours into this game, i'm near the end of my ropes. There are much better games out there and I don't predict i'll be around much longer. But the point is that makes me really sad actually. This game had a lot of potential, I think many people would agree with that. However with how it's been handled, well, it's not worth it anymore when Ronimo just can't change their approach after it has failed time and time again.


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 Post subject: Re: 2 much infuriating problems that haven't allowed F2P to
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:33 pm 
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Gameinsky wrote:
Steamcharts only show population trends, not who is in the population.
And making claims such as "And yes the game has lost tons of players - but these were all F2P players that were merely trying a game out to see if they liked it." without backup isn't much better of an argument.


We 'lost' more average players (>3000-ish) after the F2P launch than we ever had (disregarding F2P weekends) before the F2P launch. Do the math, this is no magic going on here. No it's not 'all!', if we're taking things literally here. The only possible answer is that ''most'' of these players were F2P - that's literally the only possible answer you can come up with yourself by looking at some numbers. Unless you're gonna argue we lost >3000 average players that we never had (you can't lose something you don't have!).

Quote:
Sure, there's probably a lot of F2P players that stopped, but I've noticed there's still a lot of F2P players and far fewer veterans than before the Commander Rocket launch.


Whatever 'you notice' is near completely irrelevant and it's not an argument.

Gameinsky wrote:
Though I can't understand how you can say there's no visible decline after the exp system. February 2015 the playerbase was at 1.6K, move over to November of the same year and it's still at 1.5K. EXP system came out in December of that year, followed by a loss of 200 people. After a bump (probably free weekend) you see the population slowly dive to 640 while the year before there was no loss in yearly statistic.


December 2014 - 2015 compared to December 2015-2016 (one year before and one year after XP Launch) show no significant changes in player decline. You're looking at the peaks, not at the averages - which is why you come up with nonsensical conclusions.

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 Post subject: Re: 2 much infuriating problems that haven't allowed F2P to
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:38 pm 
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The fact that so many new players were willing to give Awesomenauts a shot despite its age is something that should not be overlooked.

If Awesomenauts were doomed simply because of its age, we would not have seen so many new accounts during the F2P launch—there must be something drawing them in to want to experience the game. Now, of course, there will always be the curious few that just want to give it a go, but (as you said, Zold), this is hardly a new game on the market.

Perhaps instead of arguing about what the pretty parabola represents, you should instead be arguing about why the pretty parabola exists in the first place. If players are willing, capable, and able to pick the game up, why are we not bending over backwards to accommodate them that they might stay*? Was that not the goal of the F2P Launch at its core? There is something clearly preventing players from continuing that is not the game's age, as evidenced by it still being relevant enough to warrant a large influx of players even after five years.

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 Post subject: Re: 2 much infuriating problems that haven't allowed F2P to
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:44 pm 
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I agree with Lord Protector. Yes there are people who want to play the new game, but speedrunning and the fact that games like Mario Kart 64 and Smash Bros Melee are still played to this day competitively proves that an old game doesn't mean a dead game.

if it's fun, people play.

new games come by the dozen every year, and most die quickly. That Nauts withstood the test of time is a testament to its polish on many aspects.


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 Post subject: Re: 2 much infuriating problems that haven't allowed F2P to
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:52 pm 
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Zold wrote:
We 'lost' more average players (>3000-ish) after the F2P launch than we ever had (disregarding F2P weekends) before the F2P launch. Do the math, this is no magic going on here. No it's not 'all!', if we're taking things literally here. The only possible answer is that ''most'' of these players were F2P - that's literally the only possible answer you can come up with yourself by looking at some numbers. Unless you're gonna argue we lost >3000 average players that we never had (you can't lose something you don't have!).

Quote:

I'm not sure if you've noticed but I disregarded the 3K players because they're a spike caused by F2P launch. I compared the number once the amount of people stagnated to the number after rocket release.

Zold wrote:
December 2014 - 2015 compared to December 2015-2016 (one year before and one year after XP Launch) show no significant changes in player decline. You're looking at the peaks, not at the averages - which is why you come up with nonsensical conclusions.



December 2014 IS a peak. Which is why I compared Feburary instead of December.
If you look at November 2014 there were 1.3K less players than in December, which is about a third less.

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The year is 20XX. Everyone can play Awesomenauts to niki levels of perfection. All gameplay has been deemed irrelevant and matches are decided by a game of Roflnauts. All new metas are based on Roflnauts DMs.


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 Post subject: Re: 2 much infuriating problems that haven't allowed F2P to
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:30 am 
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No, Gameinsky you just don't seem to get it. In the Steamcharts you have a thing called 'peak players' and 'average players'. You look at the peak players, which is why you get nonsensical conclusions. Look a bit to the left and you'll find the average players. When you compare long-term data you always want to work with averages, not peaks. Even on short term, peaks tell you very little. (Notice that the XP-system month had slightly more players than the month before, not '200 less' as you like to say by looking at peaks.) If you don't want a single starting point you could take the average of 6 months before those dates as starting samples to get a more accurate view - the conclusion is still the same.

Also I'd guess nearly everybody would agree the F2P launch left out some opportunities. Veteran players quitting though, that's just the natural effect of a game getting old.

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 Post subject: Re: 2 much infuriating problems that haven't allowed F2P to
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:31 pm 
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Just let me supply you both with some more ammunition to fire out your hilariously oversized cannons emblazoned with lewd images and poorly spelled slogans:

Average Player Counts:

  • 2012: 732.8* (—)

  • 2013: 1,114.6 (+52.1% increase)

  • 2014: 1,036.9 (–7% decrease)

  • 2015: 792.9 (–23.5% decrease)

  • 2016: 523.8 (–33.9% decrease)

  • 2017: 729.1** (+39.2% increase)***

* Please note that, due to the incomplete dataset for the release year, the average may be more prone to skew; this is noticable especially with the sudden drop after two months.

** Please note also that the dataset for the curret year is also incomplete as you might imagine. Bear in mind as well that there are two very high values (as predicted) inflating the average. The trend—as extrapolated from the curve for October—is a negative one, I predict.

*** I would not be surprised, given that it seems Ronimo have no new releases planned in the near future, if the end value for 2017 ends up being around about the same as 2016, perhaps slightly above to accommodate the remaining F2P players. The trend for decay indicates roughly that we should lose somewhere between –13.5% per remaining month, if the four preceeding months are anything to go by.

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Last edited by The Lord Protector on Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2 much infuriating problems that haven't allowed F2P to
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:14 pm 
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Ammunition fights? The only point that's being made here is that veteran player decline is a natural development that has very little to do with (recent) patches (which the numbers illustrate).

Oh and please, 2013 had 1114.6 average players, not 1106.2. 2015 had 792.9 not 790.4.

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 Post subject: Re: 2 much infuriating problems that haven't allowed F2P to
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:37 pm 
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Oh yes, I must have slipped a digit: I shall update those.

I would not want you two arming yourselves with anything less than the finest averages, I assure you!

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Give this guy a duck for making such a good job with this thread

Nekomian wrote:
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DeezNauts wrote:
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